Monday April 27, 12:34 PM
Swine flu spreads economic shivers
By Hugh Dent
PARIS (AFP) - The global outbreak of swine flu sent shivers through financial markets on Monday just as some signs had appeared that the global economic crisis might be easing.
Travel and tourism took the brunt of uncertainty about how the threat of a pandemic might crimp economic activity, but the pharmaceutical sector rose as attention turned to defensive medical treatments and equipment.
Shares in Swiss drug giant Roche (Virt-X: ROG.VX - news) surged and then settled with a gain of 3.51 percent on prospects of a surge in demand for its treatment Tamiflu, a focus of interest during previous alerts over bird flu.
An analyst at Vontobel (VONN.SW - news) in Switzerland, Andrew Weiss, said: "When fear about bird flu really took hold in the fourth quarter of 2005, the price of shares (in Roche) rose strongly."
In 2006 and 2007 Roche had made sales of Tamiflu worth a total of 4.0 billion Swiss francs (2.65 billion euros, 3.49 billion dollars), he recalled.
Rapidly spreading concern about possible international contagion from a fatal outbreak of the human version of flu originating in pigs also pushed up the yen.
In Tokyo, the yen firmed to 96.75 against the dollar from 97.13 in New York late on Friday. Analysts said that the dollar was weakened in part by growing concern over the impact of the new strain of swine flu.
"The outbreak of swine flu in Mexico is a concerning development for the global economy," said Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) analyst Patrick Bennett. "Initial investor reaction has not surprisingly been towards risk aversion."
Pig flu also drove down oil prices with the threat of a drop in air travel, analysts said.
In New York, light sweet crude for June delivery fell 2.59 dollars to 48.96 dollars. Brent North Sea crude fell 2.31 dollars to 49.36 dollars a barrel in late morning trade in London.
In London, Manoj Ladwa, a senior trader at financial spread-betting firm ETX Capital in London, said: "Swine flu is ripping through the markets creating uncertainty in its wake."
He added: "US markets are sure to be heavily affected by this crisis when they open later today."
With the World Health Organisation warning that the outbreak could become a pandemic, the United States declaring a public health emergency and the European Commission calling an urgent meeting of health ministers, stock markets recoiled in alarm.
Amid uncertainty over the possible implications of anxiety over flu on economic activity, notably in such sectors as tourism and retailing, investors and analysts took the line of caution.
In London the FTSE index of leading shares was showing a mid-morning fall of 1.20 percent, Frankfurt stocks fell by 1.05 percent and the Paris CAC 40 index fell 1.83 percent.
Stocks in Tokyo edged up 0.21 percent but traders said they were held back by concern about the effects of the flu outbreaks. In Hong Kong they fell by 2.74 percent, and in South Korea by 1.05 percent.
"News over the weekend of a deadly flu outbreak is rocking financial markets," said Matt Buckland, dealer at financial spread-betting firm CMC Markets.
"After last week's gains many would have been looking to start locking in profits," he said, referring to recent rises in share prices reflecting some optimism that the global economic crisis may be flattening out.
"But clearly this (flu) news has the potential to become a rather serious development."
In Europe, shares in German airline Lufthansa (Xetra: 823212 - news) were showing a fall of 10.60 percent and shares in Air France (Paris: FR0000031122 - news) -KLM were down by slightly more than nine percent.
British Airways (LSE: BAY.L - news) stocks were down 7.26 percent, shares in travel agency Thomas Cook 7.87 percent and in travel group TUI (Xetra: TUAG00 - news) 5.52 percent.
Stock in cruise liner group Carnival (NYSE: CCL - news) showed a fall of 6.50 percent and Rolls Royce (LSE: RR.L - news) , which makes engines for aircraft and ships, saw its shares fall by 4.43 percent.
But companies making drug treatments were strong. GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK.L - news) gained 3.58, AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN.L - news) 1.55 percent and Shire (LSE: GB00B0KQX869.L - news) 1.21 percent.
In Tokyo, airline and tourism shares were hit by the swine flu worries. Travel agency H.I.S. tumbled 10 percent while Japan Airlines dropped 5.2 percent on fears that tourists and business travellers may cancel their overseas trips.
But Chugai Pharmaceutical, which sells the Tamiflu drug, climbed 14 percent.
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