Friday November 20, 09:18 AM
INSTANT VIEW 2-HK Oct CPI rises 2.2 pct yr/yr
HONG KONG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Hong Kong consumer prices in
October rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier, but price gains
were temporarily inflated by one-off government relief measures
including an electricity charge subsidy.
The electricity charge was imposed last year but expired in
September 2009.
Netting out relief measures, the CPI (NYSE: CPY - news) dipped 0.3 percent year
on year, government data showed on Friday.
For a full table of data, click on.
**************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
Oct 09 Sep 09 Oct 08
CPI change on month earlier pct* 2.1 0.8 -1.4
Headline CPI change yr/yr pct 2.2 0.5 1.8
Underlying CPI change yr/yr^ pct -0.3 -0.3 5.9
* Not seasonally adjusted.
^ Inflation excluding temporary waivers on public rents and
fees.
-- In the three months through October, the composite
consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent on a monthly basis
seasonally adjusted, the government said.
Source: Census and Statistics Department.
COMMENTARY:
KEVIN LAI, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DAIWA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
'Headline inflation rose because of the end of the
electricity subsidy, but the underlying trend hasn't really
changed.
'The inflation bias is still on the upside going forward. The
U.S. dollar continues to be weak, pushing up import prices (Hong
Kong's currency is pegged to the dollar). Oil and commodity
prices continue to rise, but it takes time for this to pass
through to the real economy although we are seeing some pressure
from food and energy prices.
'Consumer prices are still weak because demand is still at a
very early stage of recovery. GDP growth is still way below
potential: in the third quarter, GDP was still negative from a
year earlier and only slightly positive quarter on quarter so it
is still very weak in general.'
PAUL TANG, SENIOR ECONOMIST, BANK OF EAST ASIA
'Things are turning around nicely. A gradually falling
unemployment rate means consumer confidence will rise and that
will boost demand for consumer goods, which means we should be
out of underlying deflation by year-end.'
IRINA FAN, SENIOR ECONOMIST AT BANK OF EAST ASIA
'This is basically reflecting the government's one-off
concessionary measures.
'(Underlying CPI) has been very stable for quite a few months
so I think the CPI for next month will be more or less stable at
below 1 percent. We see the overall economic situation in very
gradual recovery but there is not much pressure on the consumer
price inflation.
'For the year, we keep our forecast for about 0.5 percent
inflation, which is about about 0.6 for the next two months.
'For next year, inflation will probably be stable but back to
the positive region around 1.5 percent.'
MARKET REACTION:
-- The CPI data was released after the stock market closed.
LINK:
-- To view the full details of the CPI data, see the Hong
Kong government website at:
http://www.info.gov.hk/hkecon/key/index.htm
DETAILS:
Price rises in October by item (from a year earlier):
- Utilities +26.7 pct
- Alcoholic drinks and tobacco: +22.1 pct
- Housing: +6.1 pct
- Clothing and footwear: +4.7 pct
- Meals away from home: +0.7 pct
Items that declined in price in October (from a year earlier):
- Durable goods -2.8 pct
- Food (excl. meals away from home) -2.3 pct
BACKGROUND:
-- The government introduced temporary waivers on quarterly
taxes on property, as well as extra subsidies for utility
charges, last year.
-- Hong Kong's economy pulled out of recession in the second
quarter but consumers remain cautious, giving retailers little
pricing power.
(Reporting by Susan Fenton and Farah Master, Editing by
Jacqueline Wong and Chris Lewis)
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