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Your Money > Investing Comment Articles > The wall of...
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By Richard J Hunter, Hargreaves Lansdown
Over the last few days in the US, Meanwhile, in the UK, perceptions are not quite so positive. There has been a slight decoupling between markets either side of the pond and some of the reasons for this could prove interesting over the coming months. Firstly, the figures. Over the last three months, the Dow has risen 9%, the S&P500 5% and the FTSE100 3%. Going further back, over the last year the Dow has spiked 30%, the S&P500 26% and the FTSE100 17%. Merger & Acquisition activity has been a driver of both markets for some time and this theme seems likely to remain constant over the rest of the year. Just over the last few days in the UK, M&A activity has surfaced involving Rio Tinto, Sainsbury and Imperial Tobacco whilst in the US the likes of Lyondell Chemicals and Pogo Producing have been involved in multi-billion dollar deals. The next comparison is of corporate earnings. Corporate America is currently going through its latest round of widespread company updates and, on the whole, they have to date exceeded expectations. In particular, the financial sector has been closely scrutinised following on from the sub-prime mortgage market fallout and the likes of Merrill Lynch have eased investor concerns with some strong numbers. In the UK, the next few weeks will contain a swathe of results, mainly interim but with some finals, and the financial sector in particular will be high profile. Concerns around levels of consumer debt, even though they seem to be contained, will be nervously monitored and general economic updates from UK plc will add to the overall picture. It could well be a factor that this set of corporate numbers will give the UK the chance to play catch up with the US if the figures on the whole come in line - or even exceed expectations. The other point worthy of mention, as discussed in my last article here "Size matters", is that there is the possibility of a return to favour of blue chip stocks. The main divergence between the markets at the moment, though, is around the question of inflation and, therefore, interest rates. The only slight disappointment of recent months in the US has been that the American consumer has shown much more resilience than expected, with the result that the previously anticipated interest rate cut there does not look likely to materialise in the near future. Nonetheless, rates remain stable and the "no change" policy seems clearly to have been factored into share prices. The most recent US inflation figures (PPI) also showed an unexpected fall in the month of June which improved sentiment. In the UK, the market is in the position which it particularly dislikes - that of uncertainty. The June inflation figures here (CPI) did indeed reflect a drop in inflation, as had been predicted by the Monetary Policy Committee, but not to the extent that the market was hoping for. As such, from the current level of 5.75%, the market is pricing in an almost certain 6% with even 6.25% being a possibility before the year is out. The last two points are probably the main explanation for the differentials in market movements here and in the US of late. Thus, the next couple of months will be crucial to the outlook for UK plc for the remainder of the year. If the interest rate cycle can be firmly established to have peaked, whilst corporate earnings remain upbeat and M&A speculation continues to do the rounds, we could yet be seeing the headline writers announcing record levels this side of the pond as well before the year is out. For the record, the FTSE100 closing high was 6930 - at the time of writing this is 5% above the current level. Watch this space. Useful links: |
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