Friday August 14, 05:59 PM
US industrial output rebounds, consumer prices flat
By Veronica Smith
WASHINGTON (AFP) - US industrial production rose in July for the first time in nine months while consumer prices held steady, official data showed Friday, suggesting economic recovery stirrings are not inspiring demand.
US industries boosted output by 0.5 percent in July, the Federal Reserve said, in a sign of the manufacturing sector emerging from recession.
The increase was a tick higher than the consensus forecast of 0.4 percent and followed eight consecutive months of declines.
The Fed noted that "aside from a hurricane-related rebound in October 2008, the gain in July marked the first monthly increase since December 2007," when the world's largest economy entered recession.
Manufacturing output advanced 1.0 percent in July, driven largely by the auto sector -- which built cars at an annual rate of 5.9 million units in the month, compared with 4.1 million units in June.
Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent.
"What we are seeing here is the initial fragile blossoms of the recovery," said Brian Bethune, chief US financial economist at IHS Global Insight.
"However, the auto industry will burn through the remaining funding of the 'cash for clunkers' program very quickly, and other fiscal stimulus measures -- the first-time homebuyers credit in particular, will expire before the end of the year," he said.
Separately, the Labor Department reported consumer prices held unchanged in July from June, in line with expectations, leaving a year-over-year 2.1 percent drop that was the steepest since 1950 due to an unfavorable comparison with pre-global meltdown conditions.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1 percent, slowing from a 0.2 percent rise in June. The core rate was up 1.5 percent from July 2008, a two-tenths point gain from June.
Those inflation levels are considered to be within the comfort zone for the Federal Reserve in setting monetary policy.
The Fed this week maintained its exceptionally low key interest rate near zero, as expected, to support the recession-mired economy and reiterated its outlook for subdued inflation.
"There is still no sign of any resurgence in core inflation, which means the Fed should be safe in maintaining low rates and quantitative easing for at least another month as recovery continues," said Andres Carbacho-Burgos of Moody's Economy.com.
A grim consumer confidence report Friday lent support to a weak outlook for consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of US economic activity and is key to recovery.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dipped to 63.2 from 66.0 in August, below the consensus forecast of 69.0.
Bethune said the report was "a sober reminder of how much pressure households are under in terms of the huge cumulative declines in household wealth over the recession, trend increases in unemployment and underemployment, and downward pressure on wages, salaries and benefits as companies have clamped down on costs."
Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics, noted persistently tight credit conditions, despite the authorities' massive efforts to kick-start lending.
"The credit constraint on consumers is so great that we have to wonder whether spending will fall short of the pace implied by its historical link with the confidence numbers," he said.
"The numbers for recent months do suggest this is a potentially serious problem."
Andrew Busch of BMO Capital Markets agreed, saying the report offered a "soft outlook for back-to-school sales."
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