Funds Centre |
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By Mark Dampier, Head of Research, Hargreaves Lansdown
This is certainly not an area for the faint hearted; not only are you dealing with economics (which are always difficult to forecast) but politics too. That said if you are looking for the best performing market in any one year it is unlikely to be one of the more established major markets. It is sometimes said of larger companies that "elephants can't gallop". The same is often true for more mature markets such as the UK, America and Japan. What a turnaround the Russian economy has seen. In 1998 it defaulted on its sovereign debt and its stock market plunged to all time lows. Fast forward to 2007 and we have an economy that looks compelling with a strong investment case. Russia now has foreign currency reserves in excess of $250 billion. It is also looking to invest for the future. In 2004 they created the stabilisation fund from royalty tax and the export duty on oil. The idea was to preserve economic stability and create an investment climate which was friendly to the influx of both labour and capital. This stabilisation fund is now over $77 billion in size and has allowed the full early repayment of Russia's remaining $22 billion of foreign debt, saving a fortune in interest payments. Many critics claim that the Russian economy is too dependant on commodities, arguing that without oil and the general commodity boom Russia would sink back into the mire. Oil and commodities companies currently make up 65% of the Russian stock market, so there is no doubting their influence. However Russian oil would still be profitable if the oil price fell to $7 a barrel (it currently stands at around $61). Their oil companies are highly profitable. For example, Lukoil, has managed to contain its costs while other, better known companies such as BP and Shell have seen theirs rise exponentially. One fund that has taken advantage of this rise in the Russian stock market is Neptune Russia and Greater Russia. The fund manager, Robin Geffen, has made the most of the growth in the oil and gas sectors, particularly companies such as Gazprom whose share price has appreciated by over 100% since he invested. However over the last six or seven months he has reduced his weightings to this area. Commodities exposure is now only 17% of the fund. He has been taking advantage of consumer demand because as the economy has improved so has the population's wages and living standards. Sectors such as food retailing and financials are prospering. We wouldn't suggest that Russia makes up a huge part of your portfolio and, as with all stock market investments, this fund will fall in value as well as rise. However, if you are comfortable with the risks, it could be an excellent time to consider investing. It could be the best investment you make this year. How much should you invest? While the growth story for Russia is compelling, investors should remember that this is a higher risk area. The exact amount you should invest will depend on your attitude to risk and time horizon. It is important to ensure your portfolio is balanced across all markets, so I suggest that clients invest no more than 5% of their portfolio in this fund. The Neptune Russia And Greater Russia Fund is available through Hargreaves Lansdown with an initial saving of 5%. Investors can apply online with a debit card or download application forms or transfer forms from our website. The Fund of the Month is written by Hargreaves Lansdown. An independent broker offering unit trust, stockbroking, pension and investment services. Useful links: |
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