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Thursday June 4, 10:40 AM
Technical Analysis: Gold slips back

By Michael Hewson

LONDON (ShareCast) - After yesterdays rally in the US dollar, Gold has again slipped back ahead of the key $1,000 resistance level, after making a high of $990.

It would appear that the market is still a little reluctant to get overly
long of the yellow metal, given the reaction on the last two occasions that the market traded near the $1,000 mark, and the rapid profit-taking that took place soon after.

The prospect of sovereign debt crises in the UK and the US has undoubtedly buoyed the Gold price over the course of the past two months.

Gold

The bullish gold scenario remains in the short term while the support around $900 remains intact, as well as the support at the 200 day moving average around $870. There is a possibility of a pullback to these support levels. This is because both the AMEX Gold Bugs and the PHLX Gold/Silver indices appear to be exhibiting significant divergence on their highs for this year. This suggests that we may see a correction back lower, which in turn could drag the gold price lower as well.

The key gold stocks in the FTSE100 have also outperformed in this respect. Fresnillo (LSE: FRES.L - news) and Randgold Resources (LSE: RRS.L - news) have seen their fortunes mirror the price of Gold over the past few weeks. Since January, Fresnillo's price has nearly tripled from around 240p to around 700p, while Randgold has increased from around 2,760p to as high as 4,636p well in advance of the gold price.

A move through $1,000 in the gold price would certainly underpin these stocks even further, but the feeling is that we may see a drift back towards the mid to low $900 area, before a renewed test of the big level.

This in turn, could see these two blue chips encounter some profit-taking as well.

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Also read my Investors Guide to Technical Analysis and Level 2

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FRESNILLO
FRES.L
886.00
-2.80%
Randgold Resources L...
RRS.L
5275.05
-0.38%
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