When will the recession end, gang? Perhaps not for a while yet. Months rather than years, though. Slumps dont last too long.

And share prices will recover a long time before the recession ends. Six (Stockholm: ECOVB.ST - news) months as
a rule. Sometimes the period is 9 months ahead.

So we can probably expect share prices to rally quite soon now? As long as this recession is a normal one, and the extraordinary circumstances, which caused it dont lead to an extraordinary duration.

But sadly, there arent many signs of green shoots in Blighty. Yet in America, Im told, there are a couple of hopeful signs. Shops are a bit busier than they used to be. Even car sales are bucking up a bit.

In the UK, car sales will probably not disappoint too much either, when they come out. That £2000 cash back scheme for old bangers seems to be a bit more successful than many feared?

The trouble is that job figures are still scary. But there is a time lag, which has to be taken into account here. When the recession first bites, people stop buying goods and services. Firms struggle on a bit on poor sales. Then they decided things are getting no better, so they let people go.

Things can take a turn for the better after this, but its too late: the hapless employees have been shown the door. So jobs figures could still fall after the economy picks up. So lets hope, the present miserable job figures are caused by this time lag and not by a continuing fall in demand.

Who can say? But once the demand is definitely on the mend, and continues to strengthen, then the slump will be over. But by then, shares will already have started to move up. I favour the buy button at the mo, gang not the sell one. Rock on.