Thursday November 5, 08:53 AM
INSTANT VIEW 3-Swiss consumer prices drop y/y as expected
ZURICH, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Swiss consumer prices fell 0.8
percent from a year ago in October but were 0.6 percent higher
compared with the previous month, the Federal Statistics Office
said on Thursday.
ANALYSTS' COMMENTS:
SAARA TUULI, 4CAST:
'October CPI (NYSE: CPY - news) came in largely as expected, with a sharp
seasonal rise in prices clothes and shoes pushing up the
month-on-month rate.
'Housing, utilities and energy costs also rose over the
month, though these were partly offset by lower prices for food
and transport.
'With prices, particularly for energy but also food,
transport, etc, still lower than in October of last year, the
annual rate remained in negative territory, while moderating
slightly on base effects.
'The annual CPI rate for 2009 is set to come in as forecast
by the SNB at -0.5 percent, with a moderately positive figure
expected for next year.'
FABIAN HELLER, CREDIT SUISSE:
'We have never had deflation as a main scenario. The recent
figures are in line with what we had expected.
'But we still expect core inflation to trend lower.
'But the deflation risk, which the SNB has emphasised, will
fade over time due to the improved economic outlook.
'At the same time, there is no reason to expect a strong
return of inflation.
'The SNB is pointing to high uncertainties, but these
uncertainties are declining. This should be reflected in the
SNB's communication.
'The SNB will say that they stay as expansionary as
necessary. We see the first interest rate hike in September
2010.'
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Oct 2009 Sept 2009 Oct 2008
Pct change m/m 0.6 0.0 0.5
Pct change y/y -0.8 -0.9 2.6
Index (DEC 2005 = 100) 103.7 103.1 104.6
Core (Berlin: LJ1.BE - news) infl. 1* y/y pct 0.7 0.6 1.5
Core infl. 2* y/y pct 0.7 0.6 1.8
*Core inflation 1 strips out volatile price components like
food, beverages, tobacco, seasonal products, energy and fuel;
core inflation 2 also strips out administered prices.
For more details of the Federal Statistics Office statement
in German, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on:
www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/news/medienmitteilungen.html
KEY POINTS FROM THE SURVEY
*'The monthly rise is mainly due to higher prices for
clothes and shoes.'
* 'Prices for domestically produced goods rose 0.8 percent
on the year while prices for imported products dropped 4.8
percent from a year ago.'
FORECAST
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a year-on-year
drop in consumer price inflation of between 0.4 and 1.3 percent,
with a median of 12 forecasts at -0.8 percent.
MARKET REACTION
For any market reaction, click on, or .
BACKGROUND
For a story on Swiss economy click on
For a table of Swiss economic indicators...
For recent Swiss National Bank comments
Keywords: SWISS ECONOMY/CPI
|
|
|
Send Article by Email
Send Article by IM
Blog This with Y! 360
Printable View
