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Your Money > Investing Comment Articles > The wacky world...
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By Richard J Hunter, Hargreaves Lansdown It has been said that fear and greed drive the markets and from a psychological standpoint this has much truth to it. Indeed, the whole issue of investor psychology has become something of a science in itself and the scholars have concluded that it can Of course, one of the results of the information explosion and sheer breadth of data now available is that the statisticians have had a field day in discovering different ways to look at the market and different things to consider - some stranger than others. Listed below is a selection of these for which the author takes no credit and indeed, in some instances, is happy not to comment on! Consider historic trends Studies have been conducted and have concluded that April is the best month for investors (the market is up 78% of the time). The best day of the year is 28th December and the worst day is the 8th September. The best week of the year is the one before Christmas and the worst is the first week of September. (Source - "The UK Stock Market Almanac 2007") Be aware of the "daylight saving effect" It would appear that shares always move lower after the clocks change (and more so in the winter) - is this anxious investors selling their risky assets when they need to be left an extra hour? The "seasonal affective disorder" (SAD) strategy Since this affects an increasing number of people, should investors consider selling their shares and switching hemispheres? A 'mechanical' high-yield strategy. The most famous of these was devised by the American fund manager Michael O'Higgins and outlined in his 1991 book, "Beating the Dow". It was based on identifying the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones index at the start of the year and then buying the five cheapest (in cash terms). And the historical evidence was impressive. From 1973-1991, the strategy generated a total return (capital growth and dividends) of 2,819 per cent. That compared with 559 per cent for the Dow. Unfortunately, the O'Higgins strategy fell prey to Murphy's Law of investment: when an investment strategy becomes recognised as delivering superior returns, it ceases to work. That's what happened in the late 1990s - in 1999 the O'Higgins formula produced a negative return of 5 per cent, compared with a 27 per cent rise in the Dow. Do people invest in sexier names? Would many have invested in the Tokyo Tape Recorder Company (Sony) or Blue Ribbon Sports (Nike)? Can a name change have a short term benefit on the share price? Some of the reasons people invest in shares can be less than scientific. Certain investors have made their choice to buy a share based (a) on the perks, (b) on the physical beauty of the certificate, (c) on the basis alone of the football club they support or (d) on the simple basis that everyone else is selling - the contrarian view. The behavioural finance followers have some pithy words of advice, still in the process of being proven - since men are often overconfident in all matters financial - "Before you trade, consult your wife (if you have one)". And words advising never to panic - "When the market is crashing, go to the beach". These are, of course, unproven theories and, in any event, we know that past performance is no guarantee of the future! Nonetheless, with the amount of data available now, it seems hardly surprising that some have made this a full time occupation. So, if you do go to the beach, perhaps you should ensure that you return before the clocks change. Useful links: |
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