Thursday October 1, 03:08 PM
FACTBOX-Five risks to watch in Europe, M.East, Africa
By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent
LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Ireland's EU treaty vote, uncertain politics across western and emerging Europe, a new standoff with Iran, investor security issues in Turkey and Russia and drought in Africa could all affect markets in the coming months.
Below are five risks to watch in Europe, Middle East and Africa.
IRISH LISBON TREATY VOTE
Irish voters go to the polls for a second time on Oct. 2 over the European Union's Lisbon Treaty. Economists polled by Reuters see the treaty sailing through but were surprised last time and anti-government sentiment sparked by the economic crisis is seen affecting the vote. At worst, a second rejection from Ireland could spark a crisis that could paralyse the European Union and briefly impact regional financial markets including the euro. A & (Paris: FR0000075160 - news) apos;yes' vote would shift attention to whether the Czech Republic and Poland would sign the treaty and whether British opposition leader David Cameron would try to block it with a referendum if he wins power next year.
To see recent Reuters stories on the Lisbon Treaty vote, click here
EUROPE: POLITICS AND SPENDING CUTS
Germany's election may be out of the way but coalition wrangling there remains key to policy. Greek Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis is looking to a snap election on Oct 4 for a fresh mandate, but looks set to lose to rival socialists. Outright victory for either side would be viewed as generally positive for markets but the vote could well fail to yield an outright winner, possibly leading to a short-lived government and delayed reforms. Across Europe, collapsing tax revenues and rising spending have left governments needing to rein in budget deficits through cuts. Romania's government collapsed on Thursday, potentially jeopardising reforms and an IMF programme, while politics is also seen potentially stymieing policy changes in Poland, Latvia, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
For five risks to watch in Western Europe, click here
NUCLEAR STAND OFF
Iran's dispute with the United States and other major powers over its nuclear ambitions could come to impact oil prices and regional markets if it continues to escalate. Iran opened talks in Geneva on Thursday with the United States and five other major powers demanding immediate access to a newly declared enrichment facility. If the Geneva talks fail, the United States may seek tougher international sanctions or impose unilateral measures, while any U.S. or Israeli military action could prompt retaliation against oil export routes through the Gulf.
For the latest stories on the stand off, click here
For five risks to watch for the Middle East, click here
INVESTOR SECURITY IN RUSSIA, TURKEY
Two cases are focusing attention on investor security in Russia and Turkey. Norwegian telecom Telenor (Oslo: TEL.OL - news) remains locked in a Siberian court battle to avoid losing its stake in Russian mobile operator Vimpelcom. Safety of investment in Russia has long been considered a key issue but some analysts had suggested risks were largely limited to the mining and energy sector. Meanwhile, in Turkey a $3.2 billion fine on Turkey's largest media group Dogan Yayin has ignited concerns over press freedom and investment climate as well has attracted criticism from the European Union.
For five risks to watch in Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey click here
EL NINO HITS AFRICA HARDEST
Despite the hype about mining booms and free-market reforms, most sub-Saharan countries remain heavily reliant on farming for food, exports, employment and economic growth but a developing El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific (002790.KS - news) could jeopardise that. Forecasters predict it could bring crisis to both eastern and southern Africa in the form of drought and floods producing shortages and hardship. That could in turn boost political risks and unrest on the world's poorest continent.
For the latest stories on the El Nino effect worldwide, click here
For five risks to watch in Africa, click here
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